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TIME: Almanac 1990
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1990 Time Magazine Compact Almanac, The (1991)(Time).iso
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041789
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04178900.036
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1990-09-17
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WORLD, Page 35NAMIBIABotching the PeaceGuerrilla incursions and U.N. ineptitude threaten independence
It took eight years of painstaking diplomacy to craft the
interlocking pieces of an international agreement to bring
independence to Namibia, the last remnant of colonialism in Africa.
It took just a week to unravel all that meticulous preparation in
a bloody botch.
Under terms of the pact, South Africa, which has ruled the
Turkey-size territory for 74 years, agreed to permit independent
elections and withdraw its 40,000 troops. That was to be done in
coordination with the phased departure of 50,000 Cuban troops
backing the Marxist regime in Angola, which gives sanctuary to the
militant exiles of the South West African People's Organization,
whose guerrilla army has been battling Pretoria's rule since 1966.
The U.S.-brokered agreement was signed last December under the
auspices of the U.N., which took on responsibility for policing
Namibia's transition with an international peacekeeping force
(UNTAG).
But as the transition period dawned on April 1, some 1,300
SWAPO troops armed with AK-47 rifles swarmed into Namibia from
their bases in southern Angola. Even as thousands of
red-green-and-blue-clad SWAPO supporters chanted "Freedom is in our
hands" at noisy celebrations in the capital of Windhoek, the
guerrillas were coaxing donkeys carrying rocket launchers and other
artillery through the thick sand of the bush. According to captured
prisoners, SWAPO commanders told their troops that UNTAG would
allow them to establish military bases in Namibia, where they would
be "confined to barracks" like the South African battalions. But
their deployment was a flagrant violation of the cease-fire
agreement, which calls for SWAPO forces to remain north of the 16th
parallel, some 100 miles beyond the border.
The well-trained forces of the South West Africa Police,
including former members of the notorious "Koevoet" (crowbar)
counterinsurgency unit, were waiting for the guerrillas. In the
first large-scale clashes near the border town of Ruacana, 38 SWAPO
guerrillas were mowed down by machine-gun fire, while two policemen
were killed and 14 wounded. Elsewhere, the guerrillas fared little
better. All told, at least 260 guerrillas and 28 Namibian security
police were killed. UNTAG, which had less than one-fourth of its
planned force on hand and barely 200 soldiers in the area of
fighting, could do no more than look on ineffectually.
The SWAPO incursions allowed South Africa, which agreed to the
independence plan only grudgingly, a rare opportunity to cry foul.
Calling the violations a "grave situation," Foreign Minister Roelof
("Pik") Botha warned that the Namibian peace process "could
collapse within hours." Pretoria applied pressure on UNTAG's
Finnish commander, Martti Ahtisaari, to reactivate some South
African military forces and ordered others back to service on its
own. Backed by Western public opinion for once, South Africa
continued to threaten an end to the treaty. Declared Foreign
Minister Botha: "SWAPO must surrender, lay down their arms, hoist
a white flag."
But all parties have too much invested in the agreement to
discard it lightly. In hopes of cooling off the violence, Pretoria
called for a meeting over the weekend of the commission set up to
monitor the progress of the border peace agreement.
Though few had predicted violence in Namibia on the scale that
erupted, UNTAG was woefully unprepared even for the minor clashes
that were all but inevitable. Scarcely 1,200 of the 4,560-man force
from Kenya, Malaysia and Finland that is scheduled to oversee the
transition period was in place. At week's end UNTAG officials were
considering emergency airlifts to bring in military personnel, many
of them aboard navy vessels days away.
Exiled SWAPO leader Sam Nujoma insisted that his men had
already been inside the country, but his eleventh-hour bid to
establish a military presence made little sense. Militarily, the
guerrillas invited maximum reprisals by Namibian security forces
that were all too ready and able to oblige. Politically, the bloody
incursions gave the guerrillas' opponents ammunition to challenge
their claim that they are the "sole and authentic" representative
of Namibia's 1.25 million people.
SWAPO is still expected to win a majority in next November's
elections. But to gain complete control over the assembly that will
write Namibia's new constitution, a party must capture two-thirds
of the total vote, and there is considerable doubt that SWAPO can
do that. It will face at least six opponents, the strongest being
the moderate Democratic Turnhalle Alliance, a mixed-race consortium
of ethnically based parties with considerable appeal to Namibia's
80,000 whites. Says Alliance Chairman Dirk Mudge, a white former
Finance Minister: "It won't be a SWAPO landslide, believe me." Last
week's violence cast doubt not only on whether the frail peace plan
can hold but also on whether Namibia's political future might yet
be settled by other means.